Canada is betting billions on a submarine procurement plan that depends on foreign delivery schedules and a fleet with only one working boat left.
Ottawa has selected Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems as the preferred supplier to replace the Royal Canadian Navy's four aging Victoria-class submarines with as many as twelve new vessels. The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project could become the largest defence procurement in Canadian history, with a contract targeted for 2027 and the first new boats expected in 2034.
Only one of Canada's four Victoria-class submarines is currently seaworthy, leaving the navy with almost no operational depth while it waits for the replacements. The 2034 arrival date relies on Germany and Norway agreeing to let TKMS reallocate submarines from their own orders, and any friction in those negotiations pushes the timeline back. "It’s a huge challenge, but it’s a huge opportunity," said Martin MacCorquodale, senior director of business growth at Babcock Canada Inc., speaking about the industrial demands the project places on Halifax shipyards.
The government argues that retiring the Victoria-class in 2035 gives the 2034 arrival date a one-year safety margin, but major defence projects rarely hit their marks on schedule. Past procurement failures, such as the Auditor General's report on F-35 infrastructure delays, show how quickly a multi-year gap opens up when old equipment fails before new gear arrives.
Canada is counting on foreign allies to step aside in line so we can buy a fleet we haven't paid for yet, while our sailors make do with one boat that barely floats.